Owen controversy building early

Every World Cup year brings with it raging media controversy over the makeup of the England squad. Someone gets left out, and suddenly we all know that England absolutely cannot win the World Cup without him. Remember 1998? Gazza was the man left at home by Glenn Hoddle, and the fuss was such that you would have thought that Hoddle had been taking his advice from some quack somewhere…

In 2010 it will probably be Michael Owen’s turn. Capello has selected the striker only once during his reign, and all the signs are that he will miss out on South Africa, barring a glut of goals for United. A hattrick against Wolfsburg is a step in the right direction, but Owen will need to get more starts under his belt.

Meanwhile, the press are warming up for their usual outcry and a bout of national self-flagellation. It would probably suit national editors if Owen were to get left out next summer. Many of their arguments are the same as those used before every other World Cup – proven pedigree, tournament experience, a feared name, the x-factor. This is all very well, but mostly these arguments are based on history – in Gazza’s case the relevant factor was his lack of fitness.

If Owen does keep hitting the net for United, will Capello be forced to select him or are there tactical reasons why he might choose an alternative? There are actually two very sound reasons why Capello should be looking elsewhere in June.

Can Owen last in an intensive World Cup tournament?

The first of those is fitness. We all know about Owen’s injury record and what happened in 2006. Whilst serious injury cannot be legislated for, what will concern Capello more is the nature of his appearances so far this season. Of 20 runouts for United, 12 have been from the subs bench, coming on late in matches to offer a different look from the likes of Rooney and Berbatov.

Owen – can he endure the demands of a World Cup?

Look at it another way and you could say that Owen has played only three complete matches since he joined United, having been substituted on 5 of the 8 occasions he has started. With a squad of only 23, and likely only 4 “specialist” forwards, Capello cannot afford to include players who might only manage 70 minutes per match in a short competition with limited respite between games and a high possibility of extra time.

Add to that the fact that England will be playing at altitude and fitness becomes an even more important factor. In Owen’s favour, those three complete matches have all come since the beginning of November, indicating that Ferguson’s faith in his fitness is growing. Ultimately we should judge his fitness, as Capello will, only when the squad is due to be selected.

Where would Owen fit into Capello’s team?

The Michael Owen of 1998 was built on speed. Since his hamstrings put an end to that, Owen has become the archetypal fox-in-the-box, an expert at getting into the right position at the right time. Which is nice.

The problem is that in modern day football, forwards need to offer something else besides. They need to be able to drop deep or move out wide, hold up the ball and allow advancing midfielders and full backs to find space, threading intelligent passes between defenders who have been pulled out of position. Wayne Rooney is the only top flight English example of the ideal modern forward.

Michael Owen’s game does not offer much of this option, one which is now essential for modern football. Emile Heskey can offer this back-to-goal service, which is why Capello favours him despite a lack of goals.

In other words, a pure goalscorer is all very nice, but unless he does that in every match, he often becomes a passenger.  Goals are no longer the be-all-and-end-all for forwards that they used to be.

Of the world’s current leading forwards – Messi, Ibrahimovic, Rooney, Torres, Drogba etc – none is purely a finisher. They all offer a creative option in a way that Owen cannot match. Study the way that Arsenal and Manchester United often lineup and you will struggle to find anybody “leading the line”* but rather 3 or 4 players who interchange positions, be they wide, withdrawn or advanced forwards.

When United first played this way, with Rooney, Tevez, Ronaldo and often Giggs, observers wondered how they would succeed without an out & out goalscorer, a van Nistelrooy, to lead the line (that phrase again). As usual, Sir Alex was one step ahead, having recognised that actually the line no longer exists to be lead. The result, after a slow start, was the Premier League title and the Champions League, with Ronaldo scoring 40+ goals (although not solely from the wing as conventional press reporting often had it).

Take this quote from Jonathan Wilson’s outstanding “Inverting the Pyramid“, a history of the tactics of football, which illustrates why England lag behind when it comes to producing world class forwards:

“I can’t believe that in England they don’t teach young players to be multi-functional. To them it’s just about knowing one position and playing that position. To them a striker is a striker and that’s it. For me, a striker is not just a striker. He’s somebody who has to move, who has to cross, and who has to do this in a 4-4-2 or in a 4-3-3 or in a 3-5-2.”

That quote came from one Jose Mourinho, who knows a few things about success in modern football. Wilson also argues that the goal poacher is all but extinct, citing Owen and Pippo Inzaghi as the last prominent examples of a dying breed.

So where does Owen fit in at Old Trafford? He is used by Sir Alex Ferguson as a change-up, primarily brought on later on in matches to pose defences a different problem. He has started more in the League Cup and Champions League than in the Premier League, and it will be interesting to see how Ferguson uses him during the knockout rounds against stronger teams than Besiktas and Wolfsburg.

Capello has been using Jermaine Defoe in a very similar role, and this is where he faces a problem over Owen. If, as expected, he allows space in his squad for only four forwards, there is only room for one of Owen and Defoe. Rooney is unique, and Capello has generally used a target-man like Heskey or Peter Crouch to partner him. Defoe has offered the impact option from the bench, but still requires a target-man to work with.

So as well as Rooney and Defoe, Capello will need a target-man and a direct backup to cover for injury and suspension. And that is why there has been no room for Owen up to this point. If he is to break into the squad, it would be at the expense of Defoe, who has better fitness, more pace and a consistent run of matches in his favour.

Despite all of the above, a return is still possible for Owen, but he will need to play and score consistently for United for the rest of the season, and prove to Capello that injury and fitness won’t be a problem come the end of a gruelling season. If he can do that, he might just stand a chance, but the odds are not in his favour.