Are Manchester United Premier League favourites?

A week ago nobody was looking beyond Chelsea as Premier League champions this season. With their dismantling of Arsenal, 5 point advantage and United’s defensive injury crisis, it looked like Carlo Ancelotti’s men were starting to pull clear. But a lot can change in seven days.

Chelsea’s defeat to Manchester City has cut seen their advantage cut to 2 points, whilst United appear as solid as ever in defence regardless of who plays there. With a relatively easy run of fixtures over the holiday period, this weekend’s visit of Aston Villa being the biggest challenge, they will be confident of coming through their injury problems reasonably unscathed.

Chelsea meanwhile know that their key period will fall during the African Cup of Nations, which could deprive them of Didier Drogba, Saloman Kalou, Michael Essien and Jon-Obi Mikel. They face trips to Hull & Burnley, either side of visits by Sunderland and Birmingham. Normally these would appear straightforward enough, but the absence of Didier Drogba in particular could be crucial.

If United get their noses ahead in the title race, they will be confident of being able to stay there. The two sides clash at Old Trafford on April 3rd, and Chelsea’s remaining away fixtures after this are at Liverpool and Tottenham. United visit Manchester City, but will feel that their other remaining matches hold no great fear – Spurs rarely threaten at Old Trafford, Steve Bruce’s teams have a terrible record against his former club, and Blackburn and Stoke are merely functional.

So Chelsea’s ability to overcome their January losses will be crucial. Doubtless they will try and buy during the transfer window, but they will want to get any deals done early to minimise the affects of the ACN and to allow new signings to settle.

If they fail to cope adequately with this period, United will surely capitalize as they always do. The Champions may have lost Ronaldo, but the 3-1 Champions League win at Wolfsburg demonstrates their ability to grind out results amidst adversity.

What of Arsenal? Wenger’s reliance on style over substance leaves them looking like so many French Fancies – delicious coating, but disappointing spongy centre. Robin Van Persie’s long term injury is a major blow, and they are expected to buy a striker in January, but they could also do with a strong ball-winner in midfield, where they can be outmuscled. The top four should be well within their grasp, but a title challenge is probably beyond them.